In the MERMAID project, DLR is developing a method for the automated calculation of plausible ship routes. Among other things, this should enable an improved arrival time forecast in order to optimise logistics processes relating to sea transport.
The transitions between sea and land transport play an important role in global supply chains, as sea transport accounts for a significant proportion of global goods transport on a global scale. Reliable information about the expected arrival of a ship at the port of destination is of considerable importance for a smooth transition. While the ship's command and their shipping companies are usually fully informed about the voyage planning, this is not the case for the shippers and forwarders of the goods. They are often only informed of changes to the arrival at short notice. This leads to unnecessary idle and waiting times and prevents efficient "just-in-time" planning.
A reliable forecast of the arrival time requires detailed ship data (destination port, cruising speed, course, current position, weather, draught, tide times, etc.) on the one hand and a forecast of the planned ship route and the travel time required for this on the other. The ship data exists in the form of AIS data (Automatic Identification System), although not in the form required for the above forecast.
Brazil as an example of the routes obtained from the AIS data.
The MERMAID project is developing a method for routing and accurately estimating the ETA (Estimated Time of Arrival) of ships. The result will be a module that is able to derive a routable edge-node model of maritime traffic based on AIS data. In addition to the precise arrival time prediction of ships, the user will benefit from a more precise prediction and visualisation of routes.
The AIS data required for this, among other things, is provided by industry participant JAKOTA Cruise Systems GmbH from Rostock. Based on this, algorithms are implemented which generate a routable graph for commercially used sea routes. This graph is extended with partly dynamic and static information (e.g. speed limits, possibly depending on the type of ship, size restrictions, draught/depth restrictions, weather conditions, tide, one-way regulations). The dynamic information follows the model of travelling times in road traffic: it depends on the day / time of day and is to be understood as a forecast, which a routing algorithm takes into account. Based on this graph, a most probable route and the ETA can then be determined for any ship.
Results
A graph has already been created from the AIS data provided. This is being tested and expanded in consultation with industry stakeholders so that it can be used in existing systems. The graph covers all global sea routes used commercially by industrial shipping and connects the ports they call at. These and other results will be presented at the logistics trade fair transport logistic 2019 in Munich.
MERMAID has won the IDEA Award for technology marketing at DLR.
The winners of the IDEA Award (Dr Frank Heymann, Prof Dr Peter Wagner, Dr Robert Hilbrich) with DLR Executive Board Chairwoman Prof Dr Pascale Ehrenfreund and Head of DLR Technology Marketing Dr Rolf-Dieter Fischer.
