Space weather reporting
The reliability of weather forecasts is one of the most popular topics of small talk – and when it comes to the predictability of space weather, there is just as much uncertainty to complain about. Concepts like chaos theory and the butterfly effect have long been staples of film and TV dramas, which often blend science and fantasy. But in fact, these ideas describe a fundamental principle of physics, which is that, in highly interacting systems, even the tiniest of changes can have enormous effects on the system as a whole.
Space weather follows similar principles to everyday meteorological weather and is also composed of numerous interconnected processes that form a complex system. This means that forecast models soon become inaccurate if the initial state is not precisely known.
Empirical versus physical models
Computer models for the various systems that influence space weather, from the Sun's surface and solar wind to the magnetosphere, ionosphere and atmosphere, need to be linked together to realistically simulate space weather. A particular challenge lies in taking sufficient account of the interfaces between these sub-systems.
Empirical models are often used to calculate forecasts quickly. These are based on measurements rather than the fundamental laws of physics – the latter are known as physical models. Data assimilation technology, which integrates measurement data into physics-based forecast models in real time to correct any deviations, also plays a central role in meteorological weather forecasting.
Since measurements of space weather, unlike measurements of meteorological weather, are technically very demanding, physical forecasting remains a major challenge. However, various empirical models currently provide reliable short-term forecasts and real-time assessments.
For example, users of satellite navigation can resolve uncertainties in positioning by integrating real-time correction models, such as NTCM-G from Europe's Galileo satellite navigation system (see below). These advances help mitigate the impact of space weather on modern technologies.
The DLR Ionosphere Monitoring and Prediction Center (IMPC)
Solar flares or geomagnetic storms can severely disrupt essential technologies such as satellite navigation, telecommunications and power grids.
DLR's Ionosphere Monitoring and Prediction Center (IMPC) is one of the world’s leading institutions monitoring and forecasting space weather.
To do so, the IMPC uses cutting-edge technologies, and, among other things, generates global maps in near real-time to monitor the accuracy of navigation signals.
Elektronendichtekarten in Echtzeit
DLR's Ionosphere Monitoring and Prediction Center (IMPC) creates real-time maps and indices showing the extent to which the ionosphere is disturbed by space weather. These include total electron content (TEC) maps and the Rate of TEC Index (ROTI), which highlights rapid changes in the ionosphere. This data is particularly important for aviation, shipping and other activities that demand reliable navigation signals.
The IMPC is developing user-friendly services and tools aimed at facilitating access to this information. Users can find out about the current space weather situation in real time and determine the extent to which navigation systems in their region are affected.
The data is available both on the IMPC website and through standardised APIs (application programming interfaces) for automated systems, facilitating integration into applications.
For example, the Neustrelitz Total Electron Content Model for Galileo (NTCM-G) is also available via an API. Registered users can access precise ionospheric correction data in real time and integrate it directly into their satellite navigation applications. NTCM-G was developed specifically for use with Galileo navigation signals and offers an efficient alternative to the NeQuick-G algorithm due to its lower computing power requirements. This is a particularly important consideration for smartphones, IoT devices and ultimately any device with an IP address that can transmit data over a network.
The NTCM-G model was developed and tested by the DLR Institute for Solar-Terrestrial Physics. Both the European Space Agency (ESA) and the European Union have validated NTCM-G – a testament to its reliability and quality.
Through its involvement in ESA programmes and beyond, the IMPC helps prepare Europe for the challenges posed by space weather. The IMPC is therefore reinforcing the security and performance of modern, increasingly interconnected systems in Europe and worldwide.
Strong international collaboration
NASA, NOAA
International collaboration is an essential part of the IMPC's work. As part of the International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI), the centre advances instruments such as the Global Ionosphere Flare Detection System (GIFDS), which monitors solar flares.
DLR also operates several stations within eCALLISTO, a data collection network for solar radio bursts worldwide. The DLR Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics in Neustrelitz is also home to the only European antenna receiving solar wind data from NASA's DSCOVR (Deep Space Climate Observatory) satellite.
The IMPC is especially important for civil aviation. It plays a central role in the European PECASUS network, one of four space weather centres worldwide issuing warnings for the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). These warnings enable airlines to operate safely even during severe space weather events.
In addition, the IMPC is an active member of the International Space Environment Service (ISES), which provides space weather services with global forecasts and real-time space weather analysis. The IMPC also plays an important role in ESA's Space Safety Programme (S2P), managing the Ionospheric Weather Expert Service Centre (I-ESC), which monitors disturbances in the ionosphere that can affect satellite navigation, communication systems and other technologies.