The "DEvelopment Pathways for Aviation up to 2070" (DEPA 2070) project, conducted by the German Aerospace Centre (DLR), examines the future development of passenger aviation up to the year 2070. The focus is on the analysis of trends, the development of aviation scenarios, and the evaluation of innovative technologies and their impacts on the environment, economy, and society. DEPA 2070 builds on the insights gained from the DEPA 2050 project and offers concrete perspectives for the sustainable transformation of aviation.
Project duration: 1 January 2022 to 31 December 2024
Solutions for the Future of Aviation
With DEPA 2070, the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) is developing comprehensive scenarios for the future of passenger aviation to identify new technological solutions that reconcile ecological and economic objectives. The project analyses long-term trends in areas such as propulsion technology, alternative fuels, and maintenance. External factors such as population growth, energy prices, and geopolitical developments are also considered.
Motivation and Background
The DEPA 2070 project supports the strategic orientation of the aviation industry and helps to design realistic development pathways for passenger aviation. In light of current challenges such as climate change and increasing mobility needs, the project aims to find solutions that make aviation climate-compatible and future-proof.
Research Topics
Creation of realistic development scenarios: Describing and quantifying detailed, vehicle-specific development and aviation scenarios up to 2070, based on trends in technology, energy, and infrastructure, as well as societal and political changes.
Technology and sustainability analysis: Analysing the ecological, economic, and social effects of long-term aviation development. This includes evaluating the aforementioned scenarios and exploring the technological and economic potential of innovative aviation technologies.
Evaluation of future aircraft concepts: Identifying, evaluating, and developing technology pathways for forward-looking aircraft concepts and new market segments, considering both ecological and economic sustainability.
Trend analyses: System analyses and scenario development regarding the market penetration of technologies and their possible evolution.
Technology roadmaps: Creating detailed roadmaps for various future aircraft concepts to estimate the development and market penetration of new technologies.
Impact analyses: Assessing the long-term impacts of new technologies on noise, CO₂ emissions, mobility, as well as the economic effects (such as gross value added and employment) up to 2070.
Conclusion and Outlook
The DEPA 2070 project makes significant contributions to shaping the aviation of tomorrow by designing realistic scenarios that allow for the derivation of far-reaching implications for the future energy mix of aviation and the necessary infrastructure. The goal is to enhance the efficiency and climate compatibility of the overall aviation system, thereby ensuring the long-term ecological and economic performance of this vital transport sector.
The DEPA 2070 Project – Long-term Development Paths in Passenger Aviation
Project duration: 1 January 2022 to 31 December 2024
Participating institutes and facilities: DLR Institute of Aerodynamics and Flow Technology, DLR Institute of Electrified Aero Engines, DLR Institute of Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul, DLR Institute of System Architectures in Aeronautics, DLR Institute of Combustion Technology, DLR Institute of Air Transport, DLR Programme Directorate for Aviation
Design of two noise-reducing aircraft (with the DLR Institute of System Architectures in Aeronautics), calculation of noise at representative airports, airport traffic analysis (with the DLR Institute of Air Transport)
Trend analysis and scenario development for maintenance, regression models for improved operating cost analysis for future aircraft, investigation of infrastructure requirements for new aircraft concepts
Trend analysis of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) and their possible applications by 2070
Predecessor Project DEPA 2050
DEPA 2070 builds on the findings of the predecessor project DEPA 2050, which was conducted between 2019 and 2020. DEPA 2050 laid the foundation for long-term aviation forecasts and showed that a doubling of demand is expected by 2050, which cannot be met sustainably with current technologies. The project report states that innovative technologies and alternative fuels are essential for the future of aviation, and their market introduction must be accelerated.
