Department Air Transport Development
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How will global air traffic and the resulting emissions grow in the coming decades? To what extent can new technologies help to improve the sustainability of air transport, for example with regard to sustainability goals? When will the capacity limits of airports be reached? How could new technical developments change the proportions of individual aircraft types in the future? These and similar questions provide an insight into the dynamics of the air transport sector and the associated issues from the perspective of various stakeholders and transport science. Accordingly, they are the subject of the research and consultancy activities of the Air Transport Development department.
Air traffic forecasts and scenarios are used by air traffic policy makers and their subordinate administrations to orientate the planning of the air traffic system towards demand, and by the institutions active in the system, such as air traffic control and companies, such as airlines and airports, to plan traffic development accordingly. At the same time, they form the basis of impact analyses for the traffic performance of the air transport system as well as the modelling of connectivity, emissions and noise (in cooperation with other DLR institutes) - they allow (also in cooperation with the other departments of the institute) the evaluation of air traffic development as well as technical and political measures and thus form the basis for roadmaps for the introduction of new technologies and measures.
What are we working on?
In the Department for Air Transport Development, the methods and procedures for air transport analysis and forecasting are being further developed at various temporal and spatial levels (worldwide, national, regional, airport-specific). All types of air transport, including their technical development, are included and their contributions to transport performance are both analyzed retrospectively and determined for future years. This is done on a local, regional, national and global level and for all market segments (mainliners, regional aircraft, business jets, SAT, UAV, SST). With a specially developed airport-specific prognosis method, according to which the air transport demand and supply are forecast sequentially and interlocked with each other, the demand for consideration of different "futures" in scenarios and the measure responsiveness of the forecasts and scenarios can be met.
By evaluating new technologies in terms of their ecological, economic and social benefits, the Department for Air Transport Development contributes to forecasting possible pathways of the aviation market and deriving recommendations for policymakers as well as aviation companies and the air transport industry shaping future air transport in a sustainable and climate-friendly way.