Air traffic plays a central role in a globalised world. It connects people and markets, fosters economic growth, and enables international goods transport. Given the dynamic nature of air traffic, it is crucial to accurately assess future developments. Forecasts help to identify transport, economic, and environmental factors at an early stage and develop appropriate measures.
Data Basis for Reliable Air Transport Forecasts
Our Air Transport Development department relies on an extensive and continuously updated data collection, some of which dates back up to 50 years. These historical data form the foundation of our forecasting models, which combine established statistical methods with innovative approaches to accurately depict the complex interdependencies in air traffic.
We consider different time horizons and levels of analysis:
Historical data (up to 50 years old) form the basis for predictive models
Short-term forecasts (~1 year)
Medium-term forecasts (~1–5 years)
Long-term forecasts (10–20 years)
Scenarios for developments beyond 20 years into the future
The DLR Institute of Air Transport is a leader in air traffic forecasting, offering extensive expertise across various geographical and temporal levels. Our research ranges from local analyses to global scenarios, covering both short-term trends and long-term future forecasts. We also examine the interactions between air traffic and other transport modes, as well as the economic and technological influencing factors. Through this work, we contribute to improving the sustainability and efficiency of air traffic.
Advanced Models for Air Transport Forecasting & Analysis
Our models provide detailed insights into the development of passenger, cargo, and business aviation. We analyse both origin and transfer traffic and examine traffic flows on a global scale. This includes differentiating between capacity supply, pricing structures, and demand developments.
By combining statistical, econometric, and technical methods, we can precisely model the interdependencies between economic, infrastructural, and environmental factors in air traffic. Our models remain at the cutting edge of research, delivering reliable forecasts.
Research Topics & Projects
Our experienced team investigates numerous aspects of air traffic, including supply and demand, airport capacities, flight movements, and fleet distribution. We use historical and current data to identify trends and make well-founded predictions about future developments.
Key topics of our research include:
Interactions between air traffic and other transport modes
Impacts of new technologies (e.g. alternative propulsion systems) on sustainability and economic viability
Effects of political, economic, and regulatory developments
Scenarios for climate-compatible air traffic
Development of routes and aircraft types
Capacity analyses and potential bottlenecks
Our research contributes to numerous national and international projects, such as the assessment of infrastructure measures or the analysis of new mobility concepts. We also actively participate in international discussions and are represented in relevant committees.
Tailored Forecasts for Air Transport & Fleet Development
Our forecasting expertise enables precise predictions in various areas of air traffic, including passenger and cargo flows, flight movements, and fleet developments. The underlying models are continuously refined and can be customised to specific needs.
Our forecasting areas include:
Passenger and cargo forecasts up to 2050
Airport-specific route forecasts for airport connections
Forecast flight schedules for global air traffic
Fleet development and future aircraft fleets
Peak-hour analyses for airport capacity assessment
Practical Decision-Making Basis for Authorities & Industry
Our forecasts and analyses support a wide range of stakeholders, including municipalities, ministries, Eurocontrol, ADV/BDL, ICAO, as well as airports, airlines, and aircraft manufacturers. They serve as a foundation for airport expansion planning, the evaluation of policy measures, or the assessment of potential opportunities.
A key aspect of our work is the continuous monitoring of the air traffic market. We regularly publish reports that reflect current developments and serve as a basis for decision-making.
Our air traffic forecasts offer numerous opportunities for collaborative development of specific analyses. We work closely with stakeholders from administration, industry, and academia, whether for infrastructure planning support or comprehensive market analyses.
For further information and an initial consultation, please use our contact form.
