Urban Air Mobility: Perspectives and Challenges of the Urban Transport of Tomorrow

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) is an innovative transport concept that envisions the use of aircraft for passenger transport in urban and suburban areas. With new technologies, UAM aims to complement existing transport systems and contribute to the decarbonisation of the transport sector. Previous attempts to establish urban air transport failed due to lack of economic viability and acceptance. Today, technological advances open new possibilities, such as the development of electrically powered, vertical take-off and landing aircraft (eVTOLs). Nevertheless, the introduction of UAM still faces numerous challenges.

Scientific Insights into Urban Air Mobility

Two recent publications involving the DLR Institute of Air Transport, Department of Air Transport Development, present research findings on the opportunities and challenges of Urban Air Mobility. The work was conducted within the HorizonUAM project. Since 2020, ten institutes and facilities have collaborated in the DLR HorizonUAM project to develop and assess perspectives for the future of urban air transport.

The contribution of the Department of Air Transport Development to HorizonUAM included determining the global market potential and overall system evaluation. The department develops and uses various methods for air transport analysis and forecasting. These analytical and forecasting skills have now also been applied to Urban Air Mobility (UAM) in the following studies.

Paper 1: "Can Urban Air Mobility become reality? Opportunities and challenges of UAM as innovative mode of transport and DLR contribution to ongoing research"¹

This publication, led by the Institute of Air Transport, highlights the complexity of the UAM system and emphasises the importance of a holistic view of all components for the successful implementation of UAM.

Broad societal acceptance is necessary for the implementation of UAM, including sociopolitical and market-related aspects. UAM must be safe and environmentally friendly, accessible and reliable, as well as affordable and economically viable. Research results from the HorizonUAM project indicate that technical feasibility could soon be achieved, but challenges regarding costs and social acceptance remain. Reducing operating costs is crucial to make UAM affordable for a broader user base.

Paper 2: "A City-Centric Approach to Estimate and Evaluate Global Urban Air Mobility Demand"²

The work presents a new method to estimate the global market potential for UAM. The developed model considers factors such as ticket prices and the density of vertiports (take-off and landing sites for air taxis per km²). The authors examined 990 cities worldwide and determined the potential demand for air taxi services by 2050 for different market development scenarios and technological development paths. The findings are included in the aforementioned publication.

• Market potential: The study shows a regional variation in demand for UAM, with higher market shares in major cities in North America, Europe, and East Asia, influenced by local market conditions. The newly developed demand model identified that under optimal conditions, over 200 cities worldwide have demand potential for UAM.

• Influence of costs and infrastructure: The forecasted demand varies depending on the assumed market development scenario. In this context, ticket prices and the density of vertiports influence the demand. It is predicted that in a scenario with high vertiport density and lower ticket prices, around 19 million passengers could use UAM services daily by 2050. In a scenario with low vertiport density and higher ticket prices, the daily UAM demand could be as low as 400,000 passengers.

A study published in 2023 by the DLR Institute of Air Transport as part of the HorizonUAM project outlines the emerging costs for such flight operations (Pertz et al. 2023). The derived ticket prices for UAM significantly depend on the flight distance, vehicle configuration, and seating load factor. Given the current state of technology and knowledge, ticket prices for a flight are predicted to be higher than those assumed in the first scenario mentioned above. However, with further technological advancements and optimised operational concepts, operating costs may decrease, allowing for lower ticket prices, which would impact demand.

The Potential Future of Urban Air Transport

This current research shows that while UAM could be technically feasible in the near future, important challenges such as economic viability, system complexity, and social acceptance need to be addressed. The results emphasise the importance of affordable ticket prices and a dense vertiport infrastructure.

UAM could complement urban and suburban transport by providing people with a fast and convenient alternative to traditional transport. It is crucial that UAM systems are safe, accessible, affordable, environmentally friendly, and economically viable to become more than an exclusive niche transport mode.

The DLR Institute of Air Transport will continue to contribute to the concept of Urban Air Mobility and to the potential integration of drone and air taxi services into existing transport systems. Future research will include new multimodal and regional use cases to further develop UAM from an urban to an innovative air mobility concept (Innovative Air Mobility – IAM) for short- and medium-distance transport. Thus, IAM could sustainably enrich not only the cities of tomorrow but also the entire transport landscape.

¹ _{Authors: Henry Pak, Lukas Asmer, Petra Kokus (DLR Institute of Air Transport), Bianca I. Schuchardt (DLR Institute of Flight Guidance) et al.}