Anticipation of Conflicts using information from Satellites

ACIS

The aim of the project "Anticipation of Conflicts using information from Satellites (ACIS)" (project duration 03/2022-12/2023) was to derive (crisis) indicators for the Federal Foreign Office from satellite image and geodata as well as other information. These indicators were to be integrated into existing and future conflict models developed by the Competence Center for Early Crisis Detection at the University of the Federal Armed Forces in Munich.

In ACIS, an extensive remote sensing-based relevant data catalog with suitable information was created. On this basis, a selection or further development of indicators of high interest was carried out, which depict spatial differences and developments in the two selected cross-border conflict regions. These indicators included the topics of connectivity/networking, provision of healthcare facilities, environmental factors and the availability of food. In all cases, freely available data sources were used. A certain improvement was observed in the integration into the conflict models in comparison to the comparative models, but here a decision must be made on a case-by-case basis between the improvement and the effort required to derive it.

As a result, it can be stated that remote sensing and geodata are suitable for visualizing spatial differences in conflict regions and tracking their development over time. This can already provide information about vulnerable population groups, development backlogs or emergency situations (such as food shortages). The added value of remote sensing and geodata analyses is provided, among other things, by the cross-border approaches that can be transferred to different spatial levels as well as a higher temporal information density. The methods developed in ACIS can be transferred with adaptations to larger regions in order to make regional differences visible across borders and at an early stage.

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03/2022 - 12/2023 In the ACIS project "Anticipation of Conflicts using Information from Satellites", satellite and geodata are being examined for their suitability to predict conflicts with greater spatial and temporal precision.