Resilience and Risk Methodology
Shutterstock / arturnichiporenko
In the Resilience and Risk Methodology Department, we develop models and methods to strengthen the resilience of infrastructures against serious disruptions and to ensure their functioning. At the same time, we develop concepts to improve the security of critical facilities, for example to protect them from attack.
Disruptions to infrastructure can be caused by natural hazards, such as heavy rain, storms or earthquakes, or by man-made disruptions, such as targeted attacks on the energy grid or transport links.
To address these different threats, we are working on holistic protection in an all-hazards approach. One aim is to prevent attacks with effective security measures. At the same time, there is the threat of unknown hazards for which no specific measures can be taken. These include, for example, extreme weather events. Our focus here is not on preventing these events, but on mitigating their impact and responding quickly.
To assess resilience, we develop models to quantify the resilience of systems, for example based on indicators. The aim is to assess the ability of infrastructures to cope with serious disruptions, to identify stress limits and to derive measures. In this way, we aim to increase resilience and make predictions about future risks. This will enable us to better assess potential functional losses and failures and identify appropriate measures to improve resilience. Another focus is on assessing the effectiveness of possible measures. In doing so, we consider the various interests of stakeholders and uncertain developments:
- Scenario identification: How can hazards and threats be identified early considering uncertain and imprecise information?
- Resilience monitoring: What information about an infrastructure needs to be monitored to assess its ability to cope with disruptions?
- Resilience management: How can effective and meaningful actions be identified and managed?
- Decision support: How do social and political factors influence the evolution of critical infrastructure?
An important aspect is securing critical infrastructure against targeted attacks. We therefore study how attacks are carried out and how effective defensive measures are. In security risk analyses, we examine the effectiveness of protective measures and develop ways to systematically improve security concepts. We also use cost-benefit analyses to evaluate and improve the efficiency of infrastructure security systems.
- Threat analysis: How can possible attack scenarios and their characteristics be identified in a structured and systematic way?
- Vulnerability analysis: How effectively do different infrastructure security concepts protect against attack scenarios?
- Conceptual design: How can physical security systems be designed effectively and efficiently, considering cost-benefit analyses?
We are currently working on a number of projects, including the RESIKOAST project to strengthen the German North Sea coast against extreme weather events. Our projects often involve collaboration with various universities, companies and other partners.
You can find our latest publications in the publications section.